First of all, we need to agree to a suspension of disbelief for the duration of this post. You know the suspension of disbelief thing, right, where you pretend like something that couldn’t happen can. For the sake of art, of course. There is no higher purpose. This evening’s artful purpose will ask you to pretend like today’s stage of the Tour de France has yet to happen. This will be helpful because I have not yet seen it, nor do I know it’s result.
Therefore I will commentate on the race so far because it is a rest day. A day off for the riders. Which they are not always so happy about because they are weirdos. (Weirdos is spelled kind of funny, don’t you think? But enough with the linguistics.) Here is what we know for sure: Lance Armstrong is not winning this year’s tour. The party line is that he has had bad luck, and this is true especially in comparison to Alberto Contador. It may be more fair to say, however, that Contador’s luck has been good. That makes Lance’s luck average, not bad.
Lance has had average luck before, but it has not affected him in the past the way it is affecting him now. Why is that? It’s because he does not have the team that he had in the past. Previous teams would have owned such stages as Number Three over the pave or number 7 or 8. Whatever that suckfest on Sunday was numbered. Armstrong has had run of the mill luck with an average team and so he will lose.
Contador has had good luck but not much evidence of a team. He will have to continue to have good luck in order to win this race. Or get a team. Which it’s a little late to do. Andy Schlecky Schlecky Schleck’s late charge to the line called Contador’s bluff, and showed that he had been put into a strong position by a strong team. Saxo Bank — nee CSC — the dominion of Bejjjarrninii Riis, is perhaps the strongest team in the field. And Andy is pissed now that his brother is watching from the team bus with his arm in a sling.
Cadel Evans is pissed just because. He’s not, NOT, going to be second again. He is not buying ANOTHER of those ridiculous taffeta dresses. He too has a strong team with him. The question is: how strong? Certainly there is Gorgeous George, of course. The pride of Banner Elk, Brent Bookwalter is there as well. But it is hard to argue that Team BMC is as formidable as the Danish Knights and their Luxembourger captain.
And we shall pause here, for just a moment, and remember Garmin-Transitions. We barely knew you this year. Get yourself a coach who is not a douche.
With that, I give you the predictions. Cadel Evans, who sits first on this rest day, will not finish second again this year. He will finish third. His team will only be able to take him so far, and that will not be far enough to out pace eventual winner Andy Schleck or eventual runner-up Alberto Contador. Alberto Contador is the better rider, but not by very much. Andy Schleck clearly has the better team. And the fire.
Lance will win one if not several dramatic stage victories, but he will not contend for the overall or be able to pull Levi Leipheimer to compete for same. The Tour will always owe a great debt to Lance Armstrong for raising it in the conscience of the American public. His legacy will continue with the work of his foundation. He will be a great triathlon competitor. But it is time for a new generation of Tour champions.